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The Ontario heating market for contractors

Ontario is Canada's largest heating market, mostly gas-heated, with gas prices that change every quarter through the Ontario Energy Board and an active provincial rebate program for heat pumps.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

Ontario is the country's largest heating market by volume, and its gas customers live on a quarterly price calendar. Every three months the Ontario Energy Board approves new Enbridge Gas prices, and every three months homeowners read about it. Add a provincial rebate program for heat pumps and a large share of propane and electric homes outside the cities, and Ontario rewards contractors who keep their information current.

The heating mix

The short answer: mostly gas, with electricity and propane in the mix.

Statistics Canada's 2023 survey shows 58% of Ontario households using natural gas, 18% electricity and 4% propane for their primary heating system. The largest markets are Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton, London, Markham and Vaughan, each with its own housing mix, from postwar bungalows to new subdivisions and high-rise condos.

Climate and the season

The short answer: cold winters in the south, longer and colder in the north.

Southern Ontario's winters are moderated by the Great Lakes but still cold, with heating demand building through November. Northern Ontario has a longer, harsher season, and higher annual gas use, which shows up in bills: the OEB's typical annual bill in Union North East was $1,170.27 from July 2026, the highest of the four zones.

Rates and prices in the news

The short answer: Enbridge Gas prices rose modestly on July 1, 2026, after a cold winter.

The OEB approved interim Enbridge Gas prices from July 1, 2026, adding between $7.50 and $41.24 a year to typical residential bills depending on zone. The OEB attributed the increase mainly to a winter that ran 10% colder than normal. Our full report on the July QRAM has the zone-by-zone table and what it means for contractors.

Programs as of October 2026

The short answer: a broad rebate program and a free-upgrade program for income-eligible homes.

  • Home Renovation Savings Program: run by Save on Energy (IESO) and Enbridge Gas with Government of Ontario support. Single-measure rebates include up to $7,500 for a cold-climate air source heat pump and up to $12,000 for ground source; bundled upgrades follow a home energy assessment.
  • Energy Affordability Program: free upgrades for income-eligible households, including a stream offering free cold-climate air source heat pumps for eligible oil-heated homes, described as available for a limited time.
  • Federal National Heat Pump Rebate: announced October 8, 2026; confirm the opening date.

Ontario had no Canada Greener Homes Affordability agreement as of October 2026. Confirm each program before advertising it.

Regulators to know

The short answer: TSSA for fuels, ESA for electrical, the OEB for gas and electricity rates.

  • TSSA oversees fuels (natural gas, propane, fuel oil), boilers and pressure vessels; only registered fuels contractors with certified technicians may do fuels work.
  • The Electrical Safety Authority licenses electrical contractors.
  • The Ontario Energy Board approves gas and electricity rates; Skilled Trades Ontario handles certification, and the WSIB covers workplace insurance.

We link and summarise only.

How we approach marketing in Ontario

The short answer: follow the quarterly calendar and the rebate rules, city by city.

  1. Quarterly explainers. A short update before each QRAM change keeps your site current. See rate-change explainer pages.
  2. Rebate-led heat pump content. The Home Renovation Savings Program is the strongest buying trigger for heat pumps; keep amounts dated.
  3. Northern and rural focus. Propane and oil homes outside the cities respond to running-cost comparisons.
  4. Dense urban competition. Toronto and the 905 need strong local profiles. Roma Heating & Cooling grew organic traffic 400% in 12 months; see results.

Ontario clients can also find the Ontario arm of our family at HVAC.Digital. Ontario's quarterly gas calendar gives contractors four predictable news moments a year: January, April, July and October.

Back to all provinces and territories, or call, text or email.

Frequently asked questions

How often do Ontario natural gas prices change?

Every quarter. The Ontario Energy Board approves Enbridge Gas price changes through its quarterly rate adjustment mechanism, effective January 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1.

What heat pump rebates are available in Ontario?

As of October 2026, the Home Renovation Savings Program, run by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas with provincial support, listed rebates of up to $7,500 for cold-climate air source heat pumps and up to $12,000 for ground source. Confirm current terms with the program.

Who can work on gas furnaces in Ontario?

According to TSSA, fuels work is limited to registered fuels contractors whose technicians hold the right gas certificates. We link to TSSA for reference and do not give compliance advice.

Sources

  1. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-22)
  2. Ontario Energy Board backgrounder: Enbridge Gas EB-2026-0156 (2026-06-23) (2026-06-23)
  3. Save on Energy: Home Renovation Savings Program (2026-10-22)
  4. Save on Energy: Energy Affordability Program (2026-10-22)
  5. Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA) (2026-10-22)