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The Manitoba heating market for contractors

Manitoba has one of the longest heating seasons in southern Canada, a large share of electrically heated homes, rising Manitoba Hydro rates and active Efficiency Manitoba heat pump programs.

Written by Ali Sedighi, MBALast updated:

Manitoba's heating season is among the longest in southern Canada, and its homes are split between natural gas and electricity. That split matters this year: Manitoba Hydro's rates rose 4.0% in January 2026 on an interim basis, which lands hardest on the third of households that heat with electricity. Efficiency Manitoba's heat pump programs give contractors a concrete, checkable reason for homeowners to act.

The heating mix

The short answer: about half on gas, a third on electricity.

Statistics Canada's 2023 data shows 52% of Manitoba households using natural gas and 33% using electricity for their primary heating system. Winnipeg is the dominant market, with Brandon, Steinbach, Winkler, Portage la Prairie and Thompson serving the rest of the province.

Climate and the season

The short answer: long, very cold winters that test every system.

Manitoba's prairie winters are long and severe. Electric-heat homes see consumption climb steeply from November, and gas furnaces run for months. Cold-climate performance is the first question homeowners ask about heat pumps here, and marketing should answer it directly.

Rates and prices in the news

The short answer: a 4.0% interim electricity increase from January 2026.

According to Manitoba Hydro's regulatory filings page, the Public Utilities Board issued Order 161/25 on December 30, 2025, approving a 4.0% general rate increase effective January 1, 2026 on an interim basis, above the 3.5% the utility requested. Our report on the Manitoba Hydro increase sets out the timeline and Manitoba Hydro's own bill estimates.

Programs as of October 2026

The short answer: active heat pump rebates and free upgrades for some electric-heat homes.

  • Air Source Heat Pump Rebate: $2,000 for centrally ducted cold-climate units and $1,500 for ductless, in existing primary residences. Registered suppliers can receive a $100 bonus for applications with an F280 heat-load calculation submitted before March 31, 2027.
  • Affordable Home Energy Program: qualifying homes that now heat with baseboards, an electric furnace or an electric boiler can receive an air or ground source heat pump at no cost, installed by a contractor registered with the program. We did not re-confirm current eligibility details.
  • Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program: Manitoba was the first province with an agreement, announced in September 2025 and delivered by Efficiency Manitoba.
  • Oil to Heat Pump Affordability: the federal program's last day to apply in Manitoba was July 31, 2026.

Confirm every program with the administrator before advertising it.

Regulators to know

The short answer: the Office of the Fire Commissioner for gas and oil burner work, the PUB for rates.

  • The Office of the Fire Commissioner issues gas and oil burner permits and tradesperson licences, and oversees boilers and pressure vessels.
  • The Public Utilities Board approves Manitoba Hydro's rates.
  • Apprenticeship Manitoba handles trade certification; WCB Manitoba covers workers' compensation.

We link for reference only and do not give compliance advice.

How we approach marketing in Manitoba

The short answer: target electric-heat homes with honest numbers, and register for the programs that matter.

  1. Segment by fuel. Electric-heat homes are the audience for rate-driven heat pump campaigns; gas homes are not. See fuel-switching campaigns.
  2. Answer the cold-climate question. Content should explain cold-climate heat pumps and backup heat plainly.
  3. Show program status. Registered-supplier status and the F280 bonus are worth stating where they apply.
  4. Winnipeg first, then regional. Most volume is in Winnipeg; regional centres need honest travel-range pages.

A seasonal calendar for Manitoba

  • September and October: heat pump installs before freeze-up; mention Efficiency Manitoba rebates with dates.
  • January: Manitoba Hydro rate changes take effect at the start of the year, and electric-heat bills peak.
  • Spring: follow up with electric-heat homes after their highest winter bills.

Back to all provinces and territories, or call, text or email to talk about your Manitoba market.

Frequently asked questions

How are Manitoba homes heated?

Mostly with natural gas and electricity. Statistics Canada's 2023 survey shows 52% of Manitoba households using gas and 33% using electricity for their primary heating system.

How much did Manitoba Hydro rates rise in 2026?

The Public Utilities Board approved a 4.0% general rate increase from January 1, 2026, on an interim basis, in Order 161/25. Manitoba Hydro had asked for 3.5%.

What heat pump rebate does Efficiency Manitoba offer?

When we checked in October 2026, the rebate was $2,000 for a ducted cold-climate air source unit or $1,500 for a ductless one, for existing primary residences. Confirm current terms with Efficiency Manitoba.

Sources

  1. Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01: Primary heating systems and type of energy (2026-10-22)
  2. Manitoba Hydro: Current electric regulatory filings (PUB Orders 161/25 and 1/26) (2026-10-23)
  3. Efficiency Manitoba: Air Source Heat Pump Rebate (2026-10-22)
  4. Efficiency Manitoba: Affordable Home Energy Program (2026-10-22)
  5. Manitoba Office of the Fire Commissioner (2026-10-22)